Phase 3: Profit !

Kitty on Sale!

After got my hands on my four kittens. I kept thinking about when I should let them go?
Re-list right away?
Smuggle them to the Horde’s AH?
After some consideration, I’ll hold on them for the market price to raise.

Here is why…

Upon release of 3.1, Elven new vanity (non-combat) will be added. While more supply means lower price (the pool of existing pet increases, while the achievement only requires 50/75) The overall vanity pet price will drop only a little.

Acquiring new pet get more people close to the pet achievement goaland thus more eager on finishing it (consider a person with 38 pets and one with 48 pets). The incoming child week will also add 2-3 pets into play. While the urge of getting the achivement had lay low on the market for long. New obtainable pet will make some of them start their collection again, and they need to wait another week to obtain a new one.

Will you pay 300-400g to get the pet  achivement today,
rather than wait for another week?

I don’t know you, but I know many people will say yes.

As rare pet’s production will not increased over night, there should be a 1-2 month increases in price for my kitties.

I’ll place my bet on those cute kitties. How about you?

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Edit
Another factor may affect the market is that: there are fewer Gold around as the Dual Spec consume a large amount of it.
That’ll lower their avaible cash for luxuries (e.g. expensive pets)

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Update
The Patch 3.1 finally hit Taiwan server yesterday. Getting the pet is much hard than I thought. That’ll increase the price they willing to pay, but the demand will raise pretty slower.

On the other hand, the easy pet for children day will hit nevertheness. So the prediction of pet price raises should remain correct.

This post was writen a week ago,
since our 3.1 patch delayed, I had delayed the post as well.

Things changed a lot,
e.g. the first market still hold, the third as well
but I was lucky that I don’t get hurt by the stockpile prediction
(Although I still got 20 stacks of [item]Saronite Bar[/item] in bank…)

As I said the market will be chaos, and seems the prophecy came true to me….

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I know patch 3.1 is coming.
And it like a storm on US and EU Server
But I could not do a daxx thing about it in the TW Server.

Couples of reasons….

But I am not a Scribe!
Round 1 – Glyph [item]Inscription[/item]

The main battleground will be on the glyph market.

Since Dual Spec is coming and every single crazed player,

who never though about building a second spec will buy glyph on that day.

However, not a single reseller can able to beat that market with the scribes.

and I never pay my school fee to get my hand dirty with ink, so I am out of the game.

Reasons? my previous comment on skrooge’s post

Major Glyph market is very similar to the cut-gem market, unless you know much what’s going on, don’t set foot into it.

Say for most given class, only the a handful Glyph is used by the raiders and all else is useless.

On the other hand, the usefulness of any given Glyph changes whenever patch hits, and for the recent patches blizzard apply so close to each other, the price is very unpredictable, stockpiling is not an option.

One may only gain profit on a very short period of time in this market.

Why can the scribe handle that? They stock ink instead of glyph.

And restock the missing glyph coordinately.

The only thing I can do is get my hands on the inks and herbs.

However I had no idea on the inscription industry,

and even I look up the info on wowhead.

I bet my chance of winning is low.

Wow, that’ll cost a lot

Round 2 – High End Goods

[item]Titansteel Bar[/item] and [item]Moonshroud[/item]

while I can stockpile both of these.

The cost of both trade is high, and I am not so available for those trade.

I am doing “good” recently, if you count my asset base.

Not so risky trades. Suitable for me now

(Despite I throw a “big” move on enchanting material market)

I followed the Goblin’s wisdom (quote from Greedy Goblin)

You can sell fast or sell high, but can’t sell high fast.

So I have my patient pay out.

Generated a steady cash flow for me each day, since I buy really low.

and keep the market away from saturation.

However, since I am started so late (One week or two before the 3.1 Hit),

this revenue speed do not grant me the ticket to the big game.

Ethereal, Titan Ore and Steel, and Cool Down Cloth will skyrocket, no doubt.

At last, That’s where I could play
Round 3 – The Great Chaos

I had no idea where the round 3 is on.
However,
I am pretty sure there will be a very unstable market in those days

Unstable means Risk, Risk means profits…
By All mean, I should liquidize my asset soon for a fast track trading on those days.

I got my [item]Chronicle of Dark Secrets[/item] preparing as well

Holmes in a rush

I started my time racing.
Many may not know that, My server (on TW)
have had a different patch schedule than the US and EU

That is we are still not on 3.1 yet.

Normally it’ll be 2 days behind (Our Maintenance day will be on Thursday)
Last week’s 3.1 outage on US server delayed the patch for a week (may be another?)

As many WOW Economy results come out from US,

JMTC and  Warcraft Econ

Things does not go as we predicted.
(I’ll wrote a post on why I was not prepared for 3.1 tomorrow, but it seems outdated for now)
E.g.
Ethereal is not required that much in BS recipes
Raid are having difficult time at Ulduar,
and PUGs seems cannot pass through the barrier anyhow.
Flooding on the market for the gold for dual spec.

All of these, forced me to have a change in plan in my investment.
That’s Liquidize for now, and do stockpiling when 3.1 hits.
And I”ll only had 1/2 days for it. (The earliest I can get in is 7pm)
While trade fast is not my style.
(It induce lose of profits)
The market price change will have devaste impact on my end game stocks.

So wish me luck on that…

Plan

Must do:
Sell half of the bars I got before
Sell ALL meats (Since people will keep farming, and fish will fulfill their needs for raid)
Sell Excess Etheral Earth

May do:
Sell all TitanSteel bars

I’ll mostly sell them thought channel to reduce the trade time….

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I failed to sell those [item]Saronite Bar[/item] and [item]TitanSteel Bar/[item]
the buyout price on AH is already 30% off the market price
and I am not ready to say good bye to them in these price,
I’ll pay for the rent in bank for the price to climb back.
(I am considering to think like goods place should count rents,
since it’ll take resource for me to take care of it,
and earn extra space for them, Opportunity cost in some sense)
I had sold the [item]Saronite Bar[/item] by crafting them into arrows.
Although I don’t how long will they keep on buying on that price.
At least it can slowly consume my stockpile.

The Meat sold beautifully however.
Which gain me more cash for the buying berserk next week.