Bigjimm’s pre-3.3 post, and a few other odds and ends
First of all, thanks for the comments in my previous post. I’ve read them all. In fact, I’ve read them all multiple times. In fact, I was so excited to see my first post in print that I may or may not have clicked refresh obsessively for a few minutes after I saw it was up, and then I may or may not have forced myself to take a walk after telling myself to “just CHILL OUT about this stuff for a day!”
I’d be interested to hear your take on stockpiling for 3.3. It is something that more and more people appear to be doing, not just as we get closer to the patch, but in every patch there seems to be more stockpiling going on than the patch before. It would be interesting to hear your take on it, as well as your personal opinion on how worthwhile it is, and so on
Before beginning, I’d like to say that I don’t think 3.3 is coming with the next downtime. (11/24/09 on US realms.) It still feels too soon to me, and I don’t think Blizz would drop the last big content patch two days before a huge national U.S. holiday (Thanksgiving). My guess is that it happens in the first or second week of December, but I’ve been wrong before. Anway, two-part answer to the question, incoming!
(1) Regarding 3.3 specifically
Let me preface this by again saying that I’m good at making WoW gold, not great. I do not take the time to use spreadsheets, do Zekta-caliber analysis, or do much more than use auctioneer and look for what I personally consider “obvious” AH winners.*
[* “AH winners” meaning, specifically, items that I’m sure I can sell (a) for a profit (however modest), and (b) that I can do so quickly. My personal strategy involves turnover. But I digress…]
The only thing I’m stacking ahead of 3.3 specifically is saronite bars. With the upcoming change to transmute: titanium (it’s losing the 20 hr cooldown entirely), their value is sure to move upward, if only in the sort term. However, this isn’t a hard decision to make: on my server, I regularly win stacks of saronite bars for less than the vendor cost (20g-24.5g; vendors at 25g). So my “stocking” was really more just deciding not to vendor them, which isn’t much of a risk. Moving on to Hot and Cold for 3.3.
Hot: Items that I think will be hot in 3.3 fall into a few categories:
(ii) Typical “ZOMG there’s a NEW RAID!111!!!” stuff: buff food and feasts, flasks, runic health and mana pots, and other niche markets, such as ammunition and potions with specific application, ie: armor or speed pots.
(iii) The raw mats for all the above: I feel like I should just write Frost Lotus here and be done with it… wait, what’s that? It’s my post and I can do that?! Done and done!
Many readers will probably have figured out some or all of the above; it’s not 3.3 specific advice so much as it’s general patch-time awareness.
Also, after looking over the patch notes, a few profs will see little or no change from the patch. I personally don’t think that Inscription will see much change because there is little in the way of new glyphs or talent changes in the patch. (That’s right inscribers, you’ll just have to suck it up and continue making tons of gold without a 3.3 boost. QQ!) The other looser I see is Engineering, but that never makes money anyway.
Cold: Items that I’m selling now because I’m sure they’re going to tank in 3.3 include Titanium Bars (due to the alchemy change), crusader orbs (duh), and artic fur (because it will be vendor-sold in 3.3). Sell. Sell them all, right now. And then run away from these markets unless you really understand them on your server.
Conclusion: My personal opinion is that 3.3 isn’t going to be as big a money maker as 3.0 and 3.1 were. In fact, I don’t think it will be close (especially not if you were an inscriber early on. Good golly! Those guys made a killing.) For me, 3.3 is more about avoiding losses than it is about making big money. Get out of the “Cold” items above, sell the tankards you have left over, and keep your regular businesses moving along.
(2) Regarding pre-patch stockpiling generally
Since this is a long post already, I’ll try to keep my answer short. I, personally, don’t think there’s anything wrong with stockpiling pre-patch. On the macro scale it keeps prices steady because it evens out supply and demand. Honestly, I don’t have strong feelings about stocking, other than I think it’s something it can be profitable, and I do in moderation.
The more interesting question to me is how does it effect the individual AH type. In my experience, how much to stockpile depends on the size or the server/speed of the AH. On large servers, the population will make stockpiling more profitable for a number of reasons, but mainly because the volume of players will push demand higher much higher, much faster.
However, on lower pop servers such as mine, I don’t recommend stocking up as aggressively. I actually use pre-patch as a time to make money off of other players who are stocking up- ie: I’ve been making a killing on fish and gem markets because people are starting to anticipate 3.3. Weird, right? Anyway, I try not to outthink this sort of thing too much, but in my experience, slower AHes punish a mistake in stocking very hard, so be careful.
Okay, that’s it: my 3.3 wall of text. I’m going to talk about the other comments from my previous post in the future. Most of them deserve answers, but I wanted to get the 3.3 post out as quickly as possible.
Finally, because I wrote such a long post, I thought a little bonus was appropriate for anyone who actually got through the whole thing. Here’s my pro-tip of the post: one little item that I think has potential for profit in the near future is Snapper Extreme. Why? Well, there is a tremendous lack of hit on all tanking gear currently, and I don’t see most tanks trading in their T9 gear for at least a month into 3.3. More and more tanks are turning to snapper instead of other foods as a method to increase threat. Consider checking out the market on your server. (And, if you do, tell me if I’m right or not. I haven’t actually done it on my server yet!)
| posted in Wow Econ Research Project