Phase 3: Profit !

Warning, Incorrect Content:
Thanks to Luj to point out my calculation error,
more detail in the comments…
Sorry Folks

Warning, Geek post :

We had a little talk on the Titanium Ore Prospecting on JMTC’s IRC channel…

I had come up with the calculation below
In wowhead, an epic gem drop rate on Titanium Ore Prospecting is 4-5%
Some conclude the chance of an epic gem drop is 4.5*6 (6 of epic gem) = 27%

Although amount of the equation agree, the calculation is wrong. You can’t apply this logic to other calculation. I’ll post the correct one here.

Expectation of a Ore Prospecting:
let P = a certain Epic Gem Drop
1-P = a certain Epic Gem didn’t drop

therefore
A prospect without a Epic Gem = (1-p)^6 = 0.758
A prospect without at least one Epic Gem = 0.2413 (3% left?)

Expectation of a prospect = 1 x (Chance of 1 gem Drop) + 2 x (Chance of 2 gems Drop) …. + 6 x (Chance of 6 gems Drop)

=

(Double Check the equation)

Correct me if I am wrong

Why we tolerance Slacking Healer and Tank (SH&T)?
or why we had Dps requirement, but not for the SH&T?

Imbalance

We all know about the tank and healer shortage

Let’s consider daily heroic. For a 5-man group, we need exactly 1 tank, 1 healer and 3 dpser. We need exactly 20% tank, 20% tank and 60% dpser that is in a 100 people group, 20 pugs will be form.

Take an example of a little imbalance: we had only 15% tank and 15% healer (70% dpser left of course). In a 100 people group, only 15 pugs can be formed. 75% efficiency. 25 Dpser will always be left off without group every day.

The Dpser (Not only the 25% left over) will always seek to lure the healer and tank to secure his place in a heroic. Better performance, Social connections (Friendship/Guild mates), Gold Compensation (Gevlon’s suggestion). No matter what they do, the dpser need to race for these minority group.

Example

On a 10 people server with: 1 Tank, 1Healer, and 8 dpser. We are pretty sure 5 people will be left off with no group every day. If the 8 dpser had the same performance, there no favor by picking one over the others.

Let’s take the Gold Compensation for simplicity.
Say dpser A is willing to offer 10g for a heroic run. T&H will take him instead of the other 8.
Player A will happier and T&H will split the 5 gold per run. Sounds not much, Uh?

Since Player A offer 10g, he will not be in the 5/8 loser group. Other dpser will offer a counter offer for their place as well. So the amount of gold offered will keep rising. Until 5 people drops out and rather have the gold in their pocket than having the heroic run. Consider the willingness to be raid ready, I would say that’s 50g+ per dpser.

The final price will be determined by two factors. 1. Willingness of running a heroic (Max Price they’ll offer for a run). 2. How imbalance it is in the Server. (How many drops out we need).

Generalization and Summary

Of course, Gold is not the only possible offer (it seldom is, sadly). Healer and Tank are offered friendship and other social connection. Lowered requirement and level of entry is also a common offer. This is where the SH&T feast on.

As long as the role imbalance exists, these SH&T will be around.

P.s 1. Idea from Robert H Frank’s The Economic Naturalist

P.s 2. Will cross server LFG ease the problem: Yes and No, Crossserver LFG will ease the imbalance in certain server, but the overall imbalance of H&T vs Dpser still exist.

P.s 3.This is a short post that I can conjure up between the death-grip and plague strike of the deadline knight. Gold Pug topics are still on the way.

Yes, I am still in the debugging (RL Work) tar pit.
Aka this post : Voice From Tar Pit

I did take my time to read blogs when I can spare sometime for breathing.

Post Review

The Big Argument this week, ofc is Gevlon’s post on QA2 vs Auctioneer post. The original posts are quite long, But I’ll summary the arguments a bit.

QA2 > Auctioneer:
Posting Speed
Fast Respond (Only consider glyph listed)

Auctioneer > QA2:
Statistical data as reference. +- 25% pricing range.

I wouldn’t comment on Posting Speed, QA2 win single handed.
The main different on QA2 vs Auctioneer other than that is the price reference. QA2 only consider the listed product price, but Auctioneer takes into account for historical data.

I would say the only different between two addon is that the reference pricing method is different. (QA2 can also set on a small fallback, so gevlon’s competitor invite argument just fail)

My comment would be, QA2 had a faster respond to situation, may fall prey to random glyph seller(Gevlon’s point), QA2 cannot deal with Outliners. QA2 need more care than Auctioneer.

While the respond time (or feedback loop) for Auctioneer is both bliss and curse. The price changes is so slow that it takes a week or two to adapt the market, while in hot market (or in a semi-camper game) it fails.

I would agree on debussy’s on his commet :

The main reason Gevlon’s post struck me the wrong way is not that he thinks Auctioneer is superior, but that he referred to people who use QA as ‘n00bz’ and ‘drones’.

I use both QA2 (For posting) and Auctioneer (For marketing data for reference).

Original posts

Gevlon’s post

Debussy’s reply

Post Spotlight

Gold Farmer and Inflation Myth

Debussy  is one of the brilliant guy I met at JMTC IRC

Here is a perfect example on his work
http://latinumbar.blogspot.com/2009/11/gold-farmers-and-botters-are-necessary.html

A point I’d like to point out (And debussy had already point out): The daily reward and other static income to grinder, is the cause of the inflation. I believe Blizzard Dev increase the daily reward for player who can grind for the increased price, while that only reinforce the inflation.

Blame Daily Rewards, not Gold Farmer.

Psychology Analysis on Goblins

While I am a Software Engineer (Computer Science Degree), I can hardly said anything on social science. (Oops, Isn’t that economic is also social science?)

Green Guts had a new perspective on looking at goblins.
http://green-guts.blogspot.com/2009/11/goblins-who-and-why-part-1.html
I can’t say for validation of the argument, since I know nothing about Psychology myself (but always interested to). This definitely worth your time.

Thought @ Tar Pit

I remember an old joke of mine, when I was Year 2. I guess only programming geeks would understand this… It’s what I feel in the tar pit now

void Work(life);