Phase 3: Profit !

One of my favorite non-WoW authors is Bill Simmons, a sports columnist for ESPN.com. He has developed a number of internet memes for his writing, and one of my favorites is his “Idiot’s Guide” series. So, in Bill Simmons style, I present to you, dear reader, P3P’s Idiot’s Guide to Stocking Up for Cataclysm.

Q: What is an Idiot’s Guide? How does it work?

A: It’s a method for me, the blogger, to tackle a topic by writing fake questions and then answering them. I write, you read, and we all win.

Q: Is it time to start stocking up for Cataclysm? Already!?

A: A few posts ago, I said it was too early to start stocking up for Cataclysm. However, I’ve been rethinking that position a little bit over the past few days. Maybe it is time to start stocking up.

Q: Why?

A: Timing. We don’t know when Cataclysm will be released. However, Blizzard did say (at BlizzCon 2009) that Cataclysm would be released before the next Blizzcon. We know when that will happen- BlizzCon 2010 happens this October 22 and 23. Starcraft 2 will be released July 27 of this year. I’m going to guess that Cataclysm will be out sometime in September.

(Just as an aside, until BlizzCon was announced, I was sure that Cataclysm would hit in mid-November. Why? Because Blizz did great with the WotLK release in November 2008. They released it ahead of school and work holidays, and it was on shelves everywhere ahead of the gift-giving season. But, the BlizzCon announcement changes everything.)

ANYWAY, since it seems like Cataclysm will be released earlier than I thought, it is time to start at least considering what to stock up on. Maybe you want to start, maybe not, but let’s at least talk about it.

Q: What do I need to think about before I start actually buying stuff?

A: Let’s start with the 800 lb. gorilla in the room- specifically, we don’t know what professions are going to be like in Cataclysm. We know that professions are changing, but we do not have specifics of how they will change. And this is a huge problem when you’re trying to stock up. Anything could happen. Could rare-spawns (truesilver, gold, etc.) become obsolete for leveling? Yes. Could Thorium disappear completely? Yes, it could. Could Blizzard implement a holiday that will allow you to power level a profession to 300 at almost no cost? Yep, although that seems unlikely Yep, and it’s already happened. I can’t say what is likely, but certainly anything is possible. Cataclysm is blowing the old world up, and no option is off the table.

Q: Yikes! So basically, everything we know is out the window. How can I plan? Is nothing sacred?!

A: While the old world is blowing up, it looks like the Burning Crusade (TBC) content will be left alone. This seems to be mostly a practical consideration- Blizzard needs people to buy expansions, and they don’t seem to be in the mood to re-do the Outland as well old Azeroth. While professions may change in Outland (remember, nothing is sacred), there doesn’t seem to be the same necessity to “fix” the Outland levels (301-350/375) of professions. If leveling professions in vanilla is currently broken (ie: frequency of choke points, scarcity of materials, cost of materials, etc.) then TBC-level professions are largely okay. Leveling them can be expensive, but generally is possible. Blizzard seems to have followed the TBC model in WotLK (leveling the profession with common materials to maximum level; rare-spawn materials for the endgame content of that expansion).

Q: So what?

A: So what?! So, you can expect more congruency from TBC content than from vanilla, which means you can plan around it! TBC raw materials are currently some of the best materials to farm in the game. Things like Adamantite (and the resulting powder), Khorium, Dreaming Glory… these are consistently some of the highest priced commodities on the Auction House. Even Felweed and Fel Iron will sell, albeit over a longer period of time.

Also, remember that these materials are ridiculously easy to farm nowadays because of how heavily we outgear the content. My level 80 druid alt wearing ilevel 226-251 gear now. (WTF is my gear score rating = 5071.) In gear like that, all you have to do is look at most stuff in the Outland and it will die. Hop on your epic flyer (especially if you’re an Unholy DK or a Palli, for the speed boost) and do a few laps around Nagrand, or the Netherstorm, or Shadowmoon Valley. Kill all the fire elementals on the elemental plateau. Heck, even go to Zangarmarsh and go fishing. The materials are there, and almost no one is farming them.

Q: How much, if any, pre-Cataclysm materials will you stock for Cataclysm? If you do, what materials will you stock?

A: I actually didn’t make this question up. Hugmenot left it as a comment in the May Call for Questions post. P3P shout out for that! Thanks Hug! As for what I’ll stock, here’s the list of items I’ll focus on. This is the list based on what we know now; when we get specifics about professions and leveling, it will probably change. With that said, here goes nothing:

-Fel Iron

-Adamantite (and LOTS of it)

-Mithril and Thorium Ore, but only when it gets cheap on my AH. (Ie: I’m not farming it.)

-WotLK common (green) level gems, and some rare (blue) level gems

-Dreaming Glory, Sungrass, Blindweed, Goldthorn, Khadgar’s Whisker, Kingsblood, Mageroyal, Dreamfoil, Golden Sansam, and just about any other herb that all the new Goblins will need to power-level Alchemy.

-Primals (especially for leveling Alchemy. This could be huge profit.)

-Eternals

-Any WotLK herb I can get for 40% of market value or less.

-Infinite dust. Power-leveling Enchanting will be hugely popular. Infinite dust required in great quantities for levels 350/375-450ish; it is also amazingly cheap to make right now.

My choices are largely dictated by the professions of my toons. I mostly focus on Jewelcrafting, Engineering, and Alchemy, so I understand those markets best. I don’t have a Leatherworker, Tailor, Blacksmith, or Inscriber, so I don’t know those markets as well… and I tend to stay in my own sandbox when it comes to stocking up.

(Just as an aside, the lack of an Inscriber kills me, and the Blacksmith is tough too. If WotLK is an example, then those two will be killers for the beginning of Cataclysm. I don’t want to miss out, but I can’t stand the thought of changing professions again. Decisions, decisions…)

So, that’s just about it. Sorry about the wall of text, but hopefully it was helpful. Finally, if you want an example of what to do, consider the great player and blogger Matticus, and his beautiful WotLK stock-up. I would go so far as to say that if you copy his bank exactly, you’d probably be in good shape for Cataclysm, even though there is no WotLK stuff in there.

Thanks for taking the time to read. As ever, I look forward to the comments.

GL! /bow

It’s been longer than usual between posts, for a number of reasons:

(1) Zekta is on vacation. (Really, he’s actually in an undisclosed non-Hong Kong location for a while. *coughDisneyWorldcough*), and

(2) We’re working on a series for the site, and it’s taking a little bit of time, and

(3) Phase 3, Profit! Okay, so there’s only two reasons. ANYWAYS…

We are working on something for the site, but I’ll do a proper post shortly when it’s ready to be revealed. We’re excited, and it should become a regular running segment. But, in the meantime…

It’s time for the May Call for Questions! Yes, there’s less than a week left in the month, so if you have any questions, just put them in chat and we’ll do our best to answer them. (And, because Zekta’s on vacation, it will probably be just me, which means I can’t promise much, unless you want to kick butt in Contra. But I digress…)

teh 1337

So put your questions in comments! We’ll do our best to answer them.

GL! /bow

The wonderful Larîsa over at the Pink Pigtail Inn recently took the time to talk about a post here.

In a blog entry from 5/12/10, she asked a specific question: how much money should she, as a non-goblin/gold-making type, plan to bring into Cataclysm? I am happy to try to answer.

(Just as an aside, let me add that a gnome mage with Pink Pigtails… hubba hubba! Larîsa, call me! I’ll tank whatever you need. I’m at room #1 in the Inn in Ironfor- oh wait, I’m a freaking cow now! /sigh. Nevermind.)

ANYWAY, how much gold does one need for Cataclysm? I think the comments to her post are worth reading. They all express well-reasoned points of view. So, go read them at her site.

With that said, there is an easy answer to your question, Larîsa- it depends. I know that’s not satisfying, but let’s talk about some questions:

(A) Toons: How many are you talking about? Just Larîsa? Or are we talking about alts as well? How many alts? More toons = more gold required.

(B) Professions: Which ones? Are you going to stay alchemy/tailoring? Or are you going to be changing to something new ahead of Cataclysm? Obviously, a gathering profession will level itself. A crafting profession? Not so much. Finally, how quickly do you need to level your professions? It will be absurdly expensive to level a crafting profession right after the advent of Cataclysm. The longer you wait, the cheaper it will be.

(C) Level 85: How soon do you need to be there? Are you looking for server firsts in raids? If Cataclysm drops on Wednesday, does your guild have a raid scheduled for the following Tuesday, and you have to be at level 85 no matter what it takes? Or are you going to chill out, level slowly, enjoy stuff along the way, etc.? The faster you need to level, the more it will cost.

These are the things I’d keep in mind as I went about calculating costs. Let’s try to keep get some answers, or at least some pointers.

(1) First of all, I’d focus on one toon. This is probably just my personal playstyle. I have Jimm who is the first to do everything, then I have an 80 druid and a few other miscellaneous toons (a 74-ish DK, and some “vacation” toons in the 20s and 30s). Bigjimm will be at 85 first. And he will have professions maxxed out first (including secondary professions). And he’ll be in any raid I can get him in first. And I’ll experience the lore with him first. After all that, then I’ll level my alts. Leveling one toon will be cheaper than leveling many. So, we’ll call the cost of this basic facet leveling to be 0g total, as you’re only leveling one toon.

There are going to be a few sunk costs that we have to anticipate, and we don’t know how much they will be. The most obvious ones are Cataclysm flying (1,000g- faction discount in WotLK), and the cost of leveling skills/talents.

The cost of Cataclysm flying is hard to predict. I anticipate that it will be relatively low, mostly because I imagine Blizz will want almost everyone to have it. However, I’m really just guessing. I’d guess that it would be achievable by doing a few days worth of dailies, but how much will those dailies pay? It’s unclear. The dailies in WotLK pay about 10g each, so let’s be very, very modest and assume the increase will be about double (much less than the increase in stat-inflation, but it’s a round number). So, if WotLK flying cost [1,000g-faction discounts], I’m going to hazard a guess that Cataclysm flying will cost 2,500g. (Maybe with faction discounts, maybe not- I dunno about that.) Why 2,500g? It’s a nice number, half of epic flying, and it’s a little more than 2x WotLK flying. So, we’re at 2,500 thus far.

But, there’s also the chance that there will be a further cost to train to 310%. Blizzard has said that this will happen. So, how much will this cost? I, personally, find it nigh-impossible to guess. It might be cheap, so as to make it available to everyone. But I think it will at least be more expensive than Epic flying, and will probably require Epic flying training (ie: 280% speed). So, let’s just keep with the “double it” theme and say that it will cost 10,000g. This seems steep to me (I’d actually guess 7,500g, but I’m being cautious), but this number will work. Total: 12,500g.

Finally, we have leveling costs for talents and skills. It seems to be Blizz’s approach, currently, to make leveling pay for the costs of leveling. So if you’re questing and such, you should be able to pay for leveling training in Cataclysm. For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to guess this is a wash (0g). Total: 12,500g.

(2) Professions. Just a few pointers here: first of all, gathering will be IMMENSELY profitable for a short period right after release. Everyone remember Cobalt Bars at 100g-200g/stack, right? Well, Cataclysm will be the same song, second verse. You’ll be lousy with gold if you take two gathering professions and sell everything right after the release.

However, I don’t advocate doing this. If you have a gathering profession currently, then stick with it. If you don’t though, just deal with your crafting professions for the benefit of long-term gold making. This will be expensive, but prices of raw materials will drop over time, you’ll make money questing… and really, you should keep what makes your toon unique. Maybe I’m too focused on this “uniqueness,” but for Bigjimm, being an Engineer/Jewelcrafter is very much part of his personality.

So, let’s say you’re patient in Cataclysm, not in a rush but not slow either. Let’s also assume that you have one gathering profession (you do- I count tailoring as a gathering and crafting profession). Currently you can level a crafting profession to 450 with about 2,000 gold. I’d allot about the same to get from 450 to whatever the cap is in Cataclysm… about 2,000 gold. Total: 14,500g.

(3) Level 85: If you need to buy every piece of awesome BOE gear off the AH that you can find to get to 85 faster, it will cost you. But let’s say that you’re not that kind of player, just because that’s the vibe I get from your blog. This will be a wash then- you’ll get some BOE drops, sell some, maybe buy some… it’s all RNG. And the most likely number between 1 (100% probability of something) and -1 (0% probability)? It’s 0, and that’s how much gold we’ll account for this category.* Total: 14,500.

(*Yes, I know this is a total bastardization of Probability and/or Cartesian coordinates and/or Physics and/or other Maths… but it looked good, right? Yes, at University I got an A in Logic, a C in Physics, and yes, it shows here. Give me a gimme from time to time, please.)

Sum total: About 15,000g.

Here’s the payoff: We’re at about 15,000g, and that number seems right to me. If I wanted to totally secure, I’d hold onto more: 25,000g at least. And I think you’ll be able to get by with less. Perhaps much, much less even. Remember, Blizz has to enable all those players who are terrible at making gold but still want to level to 85. So stuff like basic flying and talent leveling costs might be very cheap. But my final advice? 15k gold seems like a good amount to target.

Thanks Larîsa for pointing out P3P to all your readers. You wrote a gracious post. As ever, dear readers, let me know if you think this post is accurate by putting it in comments. Did I forget to account for something? Are my figures way off? Let me know.

GL! /bow

PS: @Larîsa: Are you crazy?! Alchemy/Tailoring is a potential CASH COW! Epic gem transmutes, bags, spellthreads, flasks, pots, niche-leveling gear… ZOMG. You could make 1k gold per day by spending half an hour focusing on the AH and crafting stuff for people to buy. Making gold isn’t hard anymore- any gnome *cough* cow can make money with any profession. If you want more specifics, I’m happy to detail. GL! /wink